“The market is heading into a very negative scenario regarding the US, and for now, that is not the case”
Redacción Mapfre
The General Manager of La Financière Responsable (LFR), Alberto Matellán, argues that the recent pessimism surrounding the United States is “excessive,” and that, at present, there is no reason to expect a significant decline in its economy.
He made these remarks in an interview on Wednesday, just hours before the US Federal Reserve meeting, where market consensus expects interest rates to remain unchanged and considers “a review of expectations to be premature.” “The message should be one of calm; the market is heading into a very negative scenario regarding the US economy, and for now, that is not the case” he stated, noting that macroeconomic data do not clearly point in that direction.
Another focus for investors is Germany, where on Tuesday, a constitutional amendment was approved to clear the way for Chancellor Merz’s multi-billion-dollar plan for defense and infrastructure spending. This investment will be highly beneficial for European growth, and in the short term, it could “more than offset” the potential impact of Trump's tariffs, Matellán argues. He explains that exports to the US account for 3% of the EU economy, while Germany’s plan influences consumption and investment, which represent 50% and 25% of European GDP.
“The possibility of using it as a short-term growth lever is great,” says Matellán. In the long term, it is not without risks and would lead to higher debt, but Germany “has room” for it.
In equities, the General Manager of LFR believes that both factors will support stock market gains. Matellán explained that February and March are typically months of investor readjustment. Combined with the volatility from Trump's announcements, this has increased caution in recent weeks, and favored Europe over the US. However, pessimism about the US has been “excessive,” and the news from Germany and European macroeconomic data are positive, so “there are reasons to believe that the stock markets will remain positive,” particularly European ones.
Inflation that is no longer declining
This week, it was reported that Eurozone inflation stood at 2.3% in February, two-tenths lower than January’s figure. Matellán noted that while this is a positive figure, looking at the broader trend, prices have been fluctuating around 2.5% for months, and core inflation remains higher. “All this means that, if a year ago we were talking about a downward trend, it no longer exists or at least not clearly,” he summarized. This inflation is above the target and carries risks of rising, although the ECB is likely more focused on maintaining economic growth for the moment.
Gold continues to break historical records, with its price above $3,000 per ounce, and Alberto Matellán believes this trend is likely to continue. In addition to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, it continues to rise due to other factors such as more unstable political environments, announcements of digital currencies, and monetary inflation. “Many of these reasons remain, and there’s no reason to think that they’ll disappear,” the economist predicts.
