The International Monetary Fund's January 2022 update compared to a consensus view once again dampens optimism and forces us to give a chance to what we normally handle as a stressed scenario in terms of aggregate growth, not only due to the collection of risks that skew the downward vision, but also because of an expected slow return to normality accompanied by epidemiological shocks that will continue well into 2023.
The first half of last year saw one of the fastest periods of economic recovery on record. This solid acceleration was further supported by the release of savings, fiscal support from governments, looser monetary policies from central banks, and less aggressive socio-economic restrictions than those experienced during the first wave of contagion.
In the wake of the pandemic, central banks set to work to address issues such as inflation—now at unprecedented levels—highlighting the importance of the energy crisis and supply problems in shaping price levels.
Rising yields are the natural result of the change in expectations about monetary policy and inflation we’re witnessing.
Many of the high-flying companies that did so well in 2021 (and that have sharply reversed course thus far in 2022) were the favorites of the Robinhood crowd.
The Fed put refers to the Federal Reserve taking action to support the market in times of rising risks and volatility.
Pandemic control, the sovereign power of the major powers, and the energy crisis, among other events, have remained on the main economic agendas.
Debt markets appear to have started the year with returns not seen since before the pandemic. According to Alberto Matellán, chief economist at MAPFRE Inversión, all this is the result of a change in expectations.
In 2022, the economic recovery that started last year will continue, while global GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels. However, as we started to observe in H2 2021, the trend will be moderate, uneven and fragile.